09.08.2022 - Rusko-ukrajinský konflikt

09.08.2022

Situation on the battlefield according to ISW



After the fall of Lysychansk, the early fall of Siversk and the advance of the occupiers on the Slovyansk-Kramatorsk confluence was expected, however, so far the Ukrainian defenders are holding even the villages in front of Siversk, despite prolonged Russian efforts and basically daily attacks on their positions.



More Turkish equipment may have arrived in Ukraine

Info I found on the use of HARM missiles in Ukraine, which has been on the air in recent days


In general, the use is said to take place in three modes:

.

• Self-Protect (SP)
  Air Force F-16CMs and Navy EA-18Gs use this mode when flying missions to suppress enemy air defenses (SEAD, Wild Weasel). The advanced sensor systems on these aircraft detect, locate, analyze, and identify sources of radio signal emissions. When a threat is identified, the pilot sends target data to the HARM missile and fires it. However, these systems cannot be mounted on Ukrainian aircraft and thus cannot transmit data to the missile. Aircraft such as the F-15C, F-15E, F/A-18C can also fly in this mode, and while they do not have advanced sensor systems like the first two aircraft, their radar warning receivers can partially perform this function, although much less well. Again, this cannot be transferred to Ukrainian aircraft and from them to missiles.
  
• Target Of Opportunity (TOO)
  In this mode, the HARM missile scans the terrain using its own passive radar seeker. Once the missile finds the target, it transfers the data to the aircraft's system and the pilot decides whether to attack the target. If so, he fires the missile, which then attacks the target autonomously. In Ukrainian aircraft, it would be impossible to transfer data from the missile to the cockpit.
  
  
  In addition, it should be noted that these two modes require the aircraft to have protection in the form of a suite of radio electronic warfare tools, otherwise the aircraft would soon be shot down. Therefore, these missions are currently flown almost exclusively by F-16CM and EA-18G aircraft that have these protections. Ukrainian aircraft do not have sufficient systems to protect themselves to fly SEAD missions over Russian air defenses.
  
• Pre-Briefed (PB)
  So this third mode remains. In this use, the HARM missile is programmed before the aircraft takes off by inputting the enemy radar position coordinates. As soon as the aircraft reaches the appropriate altitude and speed, it fires the missile, thus heading towards the specified coordinates. As it approaches the target, it will scan the surrounding area for the position of the radar, which it will then autonomously attack. This should theoretically be possible to implement on Ukrainian aircraft as well, because the machine doesn't need those advanced sensors and pilot-to-fire communication, apart from the command to launch.
  

The following facts have also emerged:

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• The found remnants of the missile point to the AGM-88D type, which unlike the AGM-88B and AGM-88C-1 versions also has GPS guidance, which allows the missile to be sent towards a known forward site even if it is not currently emitting.
  
• RC-135V/W Rivet Joint aircraft fly in Romania and over the international waters of the Black Sea (e.g. the British machine flew from RAF Waddington to Crimea and back yesterday and five days ago). They thus reveal the position of the radar sites of the occupying forces. In addition, there are Ukrainian guerrillas and special forces personnel in the occupied areas, whether in Crimea, Kherson Oblast or Zaporozhye Oblast, who also appear to be reporting from there the positions of radars and other Russian means of radio-electronic warfare.
  

So it seems that Ukraine has information about the positions of the radars of the occupation forces and also a version of the HARM missiles that can be used even on aircraft without advanced US sensor systems (i.e. in PB mode). In addition, the Under Secretary of Defense for Policy Colin Kahl mentioned the provision of anti-radar missiles to Ukraine that can be launched from their aircraft.


Thus, in theory, no launches from containers or HIMARs, which are also speculated, should be needed. Moreover, a ground launch would significantly shorten the range of the missiles, which otherwise reaches 150 km.

Probably another warehouse where they were careless when lighting cigarettes



And here too...



Russian airlines must cannibalize machines. Given the forfeiture of certificates, even the survivors may well never see much of the world again...



Looks like Ukrainian forces have managed to liberate the Bryzhkivka-Sulyhivka-Dovhenke line. In the spring, the occupiers managed to capture Dovhenke only after many, many attempts to flee. It cost them a lot of dead and a lot of time, as they had to attack up a steep hill from Izjum. This would have meant a considerable improvement in the Ukrainian positions in the area, where a massive Russian strike was expected, but for many reasons did not come. Now the occupiers have already had to clear several villages here. The Ukrainians are apparently trying to advance as far as the Siverskyi Donets River. According to some indications, the occupiers are more or less counting on that.

In occupied Crimea, there have been several explosions at the Saky air base near the town of Novofedorivka, where the 43rd Independent Naval Combat Aviation Regiment is stationed. It is not yet clear whether this was an accident, sabotage or a successful Ukrainian missile raid. Given the distance, it could indicate the first use of ATACMS missiles (the attempt was not made in that previous attack on the area near Novooleksijivka - see previous post). Some point to the possibility of using the Ukrainian Neptun anti-ship missile or the new Hrim-2 missile. Moreover, in the previous few days, Ukrainian forces have managed to disable a large number of air defence system positions in the southern part of the battlefield. However, occupied Crimea is still pretty much saturated with S-400 and S-300 anti-aircraft systems. The occupiers considered Crimea a safe space.


According to some reports, about 20 aircraft were on the base at the time of the explosion. Russian tourists are said to be fleeing Crimea in droves.

HARMs are really on the scene


defence-blog.com

The yellow markings are the ammunition depots, where I assume the big shock waves came from. (45°05'38.68"N 33°34'38.12"E)





Both ammunition dumps 1 km away from the video.





Video:
Buildings damaged by shockwave after explosions at Novofedorivka airport[/url] in Crimea.





Looks like one Il-76 blast escaped....

Oops...

A number of aircraft were to be destroyed or damaged, as well as other equipment. However, so far only one Sukhoi Su-24M aircraft from the 43rd Independent Naval Combat Aviation Regiment is certain.


Fresh video from the base showing a number of destroyed cars and scattered debris.

Sources:
https://aviation-safety.net/wikibase/281294
www.facebook.com

Overview of Russian losses and comparison of their daily increment according to the Ukrainian side as of 9 August 2022.





Ukraine's 24th Territorial Defense Battalion "Aidar" published a Russian tank hit by a D-30 howitzer. The tank was completely destroyed.





A shot of a Ukrainian Sukhoi Su-24M being deployed with two Kh-25MR cruise missiles.





Destruction of a Russian BMP by soldiers of the Ukrainian 93rd Mechanized Brigade.

😎