30.04.2023 - Rusko-ukrajinský konflikt

30.04.2023

Situace na bojišti dle ISW.





Situace na bojišti dle War Mapper.





situace v Bachmutu a okolí.

Overview of estimated Russian losses and comparison of their daily increment according to the Ukrainian side as of April 30, 2023.

Germany confirmed the delivery of the second set of IRIS-T SLMs to Ukraine. Further details have not been released.
It is claimed that the second delivery of IRIS-T SLM launchers and missiles was given priority over the Bundeswehr delivery.
Source:
www.bundesregierung.de
www.ukrinform.ua

In light of Prigozhin's recent speech, it is important to clarify the situation in Bachmut. Based on the information I have gathered and can publish, it is true that Wagner is responsible for the attacks and ambushes in Bachmut. So why do things look bleak?
Wagner convicts are of limited value and only advance when heavy artillery fire is present. If the artillery is suppressed or runs out of ammunition, it will not advance. Unfortunately, the lack of ammunition on our side prevents counter-battery fire.
There are serious tensions between Wagner and the Defense Department. These tensions exist not only at the highest level, but also at the grassroots level. Some Wagner units act as police forces, committing crimes and openly disrespecting military commanders with impunity.
Poor cooperation between Wagner and the RF MoD results in a lack of coordination between the two. The MoD merely establishes control over the territories captured by Wagner, while Wagner continues to attack forward without proper coordination.
The emergence of multiple "PMCs": Wagner, Potok, Veteran, Yenisei, Skif, Tigr, Irbis, Rys', and Wolves has created additional coordination complexities, including logistical problems, lack of clear chains of command, and inadequate intelligence sharing and coordination.
Example: the newly formed 'Wolves' platoon rode the Ukrainian lines without coordination and attempted to 'earn a reputation'. However, due to their lack of knowledge of the area and the situation, they hit a mine and died. The wounded members had to be evacuated.
In Bachmut, Wagner managed to advance by turning defensive positions into rubble with intense artillery, mortar, TOS and air support fire. They are also aware of the lack of artillery ammunition of the Ukrainian forces and are not afraid of counter-battery fire.
However, Prigozhin himself admitted that without artillery ammunition, Wagner is ineffective and they can only move forward with huge losses that they cannot sustain. The MoD seems reluctant to provide more support, probably because of the fear of a counter-attack, which could occur at any time.
Without artillery superiority in the field, Wagner's tactics do not work and produce no results, leading to barren and unsustainable casualty ratios. We need a lot more ammunition, artillery and other anti-artillery assets to nullify their offensive capabilities.
Wagner's troops lack both the training and experience to mount a comprehensive and organized defense. It is difficult to structure a well-organized defense, establish firing positions, and manage logistics, and Wagner is not designed or equipped to do so.
While it is unclear whether our command will decide to counterattack in the area, it is quite possible that what Russia has been able to accomplish in 9 months will be reversed within a week, resulting in a breakthrough and encirclement of Horlivka and the rear of Donetsk.
While this is just speculation on my part, given the poor state of their troops in Bakhmut, launching a counter-offensive in this direction could deal a serious blow to Russian morale. This is just one of many possible directions such an attack could take.

Another abandoned Russian tank burned down in the Zaporozhye region. It will not be repaired.



A lucky bounce of a grenade dropped on a Russian infantry fighting vehicle.



Mi-24V delivered from the Czech Republic in Ukrainian service heading to the front and flying east on the E50 highway in Donetsk region.



Low-level operations Mi-8 of the Ukrainian Air Force from forward austere airstrips in the east.



In the east, a Ukrainian 9K35 Strela-10 aims at a Russian drone.



Footage of an improvised Ukrainian light rocket launcher battery firing 122mm Grad missiles at Russian positions.



Ukrainian soldier from 3rd Independent Strike Brigade engaging Russian forces in Bakhmut with RGW-90 MATADOR.



Ukrainian sniper in Bachmute.

T-55 on the road in occupied Berdyansk. They will be used to stop the Ukrainian army.

Ukrainian volunteers have begun developing a "people's" missile called Trembita. The work is being led by engineers from the volunteer design bureau PARS and with the participation of volunteers from the Vidsich civic movement. The designers plan to create a small cruise missile with a pulse engine. They plan to use it to destroy objects and overwhelm enemy anti-aircraft defenses. The missile is said to be capable of hitting targets at a depth of 140 kilometers.
"Our simple missile is incomparably cheaper than the missiles of enemy anti-aircraft missile systems," the developers note.
According to the plans, a salvo of 20 of these missiles will allow to overcome the enemy's air defenses and hit targets at sufficient depth. The production of individual parts and components of the missile is planned to be deployed by volunteers in the conditions of garage workshops across Ukraine. "There is no way the Russians would be able to destroy such an all-encompassing people's defense industry with their rusty S-300 or high-precision Kalibr missiles," the designers shared.


The declared specifications of the Trembita missile are as follows:
Weight: 100 kg
Warhead weight: 20 kg
Range: more than 140 km
Speed: over 400 km/h
Maximum flight altitude: 2000 m
Minimum flight altitude: 30 m
Engine: 30 l

12ft.io

During the celebration of the Border Guard Day, President Volodymyr Zelensky got acquainted with the weaponry of the Steel Border Assault Brigade (штурмова briгада "Сталевий кордон").
Source:
defence-ua.com
www.facebook.com